Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 241704

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    104 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.


    A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with an axis
    extending from 12N34W to 03N35W, moving westward at around 20 kt.
    This wave is embedded in a broad 700 mb trough with TPW data
    indicating a surge of moisture both northward and southward with
    the wave passage. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N
    between 33W and 37W.

    A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis
    extending from 11N44W to 03N45W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
    This wave is at the leading edge of a surge in low to mid level
    moisture, and has had a notable cyclonic curvature in satellite
    imagery the past two days. Isolated moderate convection is from
    05N to 11N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

    A tropical wave extends from the south central Caribbean to S
    America with an axis from near 15N71W to east Venezuela, to west
    Colombia. This wave has been trackable utilizing infrared
    satellite convection patterns over S America the past two days.
    However, due to dry air and subsidence over the Caribbean, no
    convection is currently occurring over the discussion waters
    associated with this wave.

    A tropical wave over the west Caribbean with an axis extending
    from 18N82W to 10N83W, moving westward at around 10 kt. This wave
    has been slowing its forward progression the past couple of days,
    and is expected to become disrupted over central America through
    tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are S of 13N, west of 80W.


    The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 10N14W and
    continues to 06N22W. The ITCZ begins near 06N22W and extends to
    07N33W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N36W to
    06N43W, then resumes again west of another tropical wave near
    05N46W to 05N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the
    tropical waves, Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N
    between 15W and 22W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm
    of the ITCZ axis between 22W and 42W.



    A cold front extends from 30N89W to 27N92W to the Mexico coast
    near 24N98W. A pair of pre-frontal troughs extend from 31N86W to
    25N92W, and from 24N95W to 20N97W. Fresh northwest winds are
    northwest of the front. Moderate northwest winds are between the
    cold front and pre-frontal troughs. Numerous moderate convection
    with thunderstorms are within 210 nm southeast of the pre-frontal
    troughs. Fresh to strong southwest winds are over the northeast
    Gulf east of the pre-frontal trough. Fresh southerly winds are
    elsewhere over the southern Gulf. The cold front will move across
    north Florida tonight and reach from central Florida to the
    southeast Gulf Thursday morning. The pre-frontal trough will
    continue east of the front supporting numerous showers and
    thunderstorms well ahead of the front through tonight.


    A pair of tropical waves are over the Caribbean. Please refer to
    the tropical waves section for more details. The combination of
    the eastern Pacific monsoon trough and the westernmost tropical
    wave support thunderstorms over the extreme southwest Caribbean.
    Otherwise, the Caribbean is void of convection. High pressure over
    the central Atlantic has a ridge axis that extends west-
    southwest across the far northern Caribbean supporting fresh to
    strong east to southeast winds over the central Caribbean and
    moderate to fresh east to southeast winds elsewhere. Over the next
    24 hours a cold front will move over the southeast Gulf of
    Mexico. Although this front is not expected to reach the northwest
    Caribbean, showers and thunderstorms well ahead of the front may
    enter the northwest Caribbean tonight and linger through Thursday.


    Dry air and high pressure are supporting tranquil conditions over
    the area today. Expect this pattern to continue through at least


    A cold front and pre-frontal trough well west of northern Florida
    is supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms north
    of 29N, west of 75W with southwest winds of around 20 kt over this
    same area. A 1025 mb high centered near 33N48W currently
    dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic and central
    Atlantic west of 50W with fair weather. A cold front enters the
    area of discussion near 31N28W and extends to 27N34W, where it
    transitions to a stationary front to 25N40W to 22N46W. Scattered
    showers are within 90 nm west of the cold front, and within 90 nm
    of either side of the stationary front. A 1022 mb area of high
    pressure centered near 27N29W covers the remainder of the eastern
    Atlantic north of 20N with fair weather. Two tropical waves are
    over the tropical north Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical
    waves section for more details. Over the next 24 hours, winds will
    increase to near gale force east of north Florida ahead of the
    cold front. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will spread over
    the waters east of Florida, including the northwest Bahamas
    through tonight. The cold front will reach the waters offshore
    north Florida Thursday morning.

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