The Barbados Meteorological Services continues to closely monitor the progress of an area of disturbed weather located near 12.5N 56W. This is about 390 km or 242 miles east of Barbados. The system is moving westward near 15 to 20 mph. A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Tuesday afternoon.
Convection associated with the system during the course of the morning has continued to show slow signs of improvement, with scattered deep convective clusters persisting mainly on the western side of the system. However, the system remains elongated with a distinctive northeast through southwest orientation. This creates a challenge in forecasting where along the elongated circulation the system will consolidate its centre. Furthermore, as with developing systems of this nature, it would not be surprising if there are multiple centres as it becomes better organized. There are presently no watches or warnings in effect for Barbados, however some moderate to heavy showers and occasional gusty winds could move across Barbados Tuesday evening and into Wednesday.
As the system maintains its westward motion, some slow but gradual development is forecast and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to develop over the next 24 to 48 hours.
There hasn’t been any significant change in the forecast track from the previous 6am statement. There is still currently good agreement on the feature passing just north of Barbados late Tuesday night and into early Wednesday morning. It is highly advisable that all Barbadians closely monitor the progress of this system.
Rainfall accumulations of 25 to 75mm (1 to 3 inches) with isolated higher amounts are likely as this system traverses the area. In addition, a small craft warning is in effect for above normal swell heights from 6PM today 28th July, 2020.
Recommendations to the public:
Stay on high alert for updates from the BMS on this system over the next 12 to 24 hours. Depending on where the system consolidates its centre, a warning may be issued for Barbados at short notice.
The next update will be at 6:00pm Tuesday 28th July, 2020 or sooner if conditions warrant.