National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
AXNT20 KNHC 212349
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...
Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Wed night and increase to at or near gale-force
near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional information,
please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.
...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...
A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wednesday
morning. Gale force NW to N winds are expected Wednesday behind
the front in the western Gulf from S Texas to Veracruz, mainly W
of 93W. For additional information, please read the High Seas
Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.
The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
and extends to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
01N27W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are within 210 nm of both axes between
the west coast of Africa and the coast of Brazil.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1038 mb surface high over Ohio extends a ridge southward over
the Gulf of Mexico, leading to relatively benign weather and
moderate winds over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Mid to
upper level ridging covers the western two-thirds of the Gulf of
The strong high pressure ridge extending over the Gulf will shift
eastward as low pressure deepens over the southern Plains. This
will allow for strong southerly winds to develop over the western
Gulf of Mexico late tonight and early Tue morning. Winds over the
remainder of the basin will increase to fresh by late Tue morning
and strong by Tue night. A strong cold front is expected to enter
the NW Gulf early on Wed followed by gale force northwest to
north winds over the far western Gulf from southern Texas to the
coast of Mexico near Veracruz. This front will reach from near the
NE Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula early Thu, then weaken as it
exits the SE Gulf Thu night. High pressure will build across the
area in the wake of the front through Sat night.
As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near Guantanamo Bay
Cuba near 20N76W to 18N79W. The front becomes stationary from
18N79W to E Honduras near 15N83W to NW Nicaragua near 13N86W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front N of 16N and E
of 82W. Isolated showers are near and within 120 nm NW of the
front S of 16N and W of 82W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail
within 180 nm NW of the front, with moderate to fresh winds
closer to the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is analyzed just
east of the front over western Haiti extending southward to
15N95W. Only typical isolated trade wind showers are noted over
the eastern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central
Caribbean through Wed night, and increase to at or near gale force
along the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
through tonight. The front that extends from E Cuba to E Honduras
will become fully stationary by late tonight and begin to weaken
then drift northward from Cuba westward Tue morning and night.
Strong high pressure building over the western Atlc will increase
the pressure gradient over the basin Tue through Fri. This will
result in strong trades over most of the eastern and central
Caribbean. Strong offshore gap winds will affect the lee of Cuba,
and also blow through the Mona and Windward passages, especially
Wed through Thu. Seas over the central Caribbean will build
Tuesday, peaking Wed through early Thu at 10 to 15 feet, highest S
of 15N between 74W-79W. Winds and seas will subside over most
areas Fri through Sat night.
A cold front extends from 32N62W to 27N66W to Guantanamo Bay Cuba
near 20N76W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 150
nm E of the front N of 25N. Scattered showers are along and within
150 nm E of the front S of 25N. Winds of 20-25 kt prevail near
and west of the front. Waves of 13 ft were recently measured near
30N69W by an altimeter. A surface trough is along 49/50W from
24N-31N. Upper-level diffluence in the area is enhancing scattered
showers and thunderstorms from 22N-29N between 44W-49W. East of
40W, mostly quiet weather prevails due to broad high pressure
ridging. However, fresh to strong trades cover most of the E
Atlantic from 20N-30N. The forecast from Meteo France mentions
that near gales are likely occurring now near the coast of Morocco
in the marine zones called TARFAYA and AGADIR. These near gales
are expected to persist in that area into Thursday.
The cold front that extends from near 32N62W to near 20N76W will
become stationary oriented ENE-WSW from north of Puerto Rico to
near the Windward Passage by Wed evening. Strong winds will
develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure
builds north of the front. These winds will persist until Thu as
the strong high pressure shifts eastward over the western Atlantic
waters north of the area. Seas of 10-17 ft are expected tonight
and Tuesday, especially N of 25N and east of 72W. Tue night into
Wed night, seas near 12 ft will affect most of the waters from
20N-25N between 65W and the SE Bahamas. Another strong cold front
will move off the Florida coast on Thu afternoon. The front will
reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba
Fri afternoon, from near 31N69W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba
Fri night and from near 31N66W to 25N72W and stationary to the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Sat. Strong to gale
force southerly winds will precede the front along with building
seas through Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
follow behind the front.
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