Tuesday, Jan 22, 2019

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 212349

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    649 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2330 UTC.


    ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

    Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central
    Caribbean through Wed night and increase to at or near gale-force
    near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional information,
    please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO
    headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

    ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

    A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wednesday
    morning. Gale force NW to N winds are expected Wednesday behind
    the front in the western Gulf from S Texas to Veracruz, mainly W
    of 93W. For additional information, please read the High Seas
    Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


    The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
    and extends to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
    01N27W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are within 210 nm of both axes between
    the west coast of Africa and the coast of Brazil.


    A 1038 mb surface high over Ohio extends a ridge southward over
    the Gulf of Mexico, leading to relatively benign weather and
    moderate winds over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Mid to
    upper level ridging covers the western two-thirds of the Gulf of

    The strong high pressure ridge extending over the Gulf will shift
    eastward as low pressure deepens over the southern Plains. This
    will allow for strong southerly winds to develop over the western
    Gulf of Mexico late tonight and early Tue morning. Winds over the
    remainder of the basin will increase to fresh by late Tue morning
    and strong by Tue night. A strong cold front is expected to enter
    the NW Gulf early on Wed followed by gale force northwest to
    north winds over the far western Gulf from southern Texas to the
    coast of Mexico near Veracruz. This front will reach from near the
    NE Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula early Thu, then weaken as it
    exits the SE Gulf Thu night. High pressure will build across the
    area in the wake of the front through Sat night.


    As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near Guantanamo Bay
    Cuba near 20N76W to 18N79W. The front becomes stationary from
    18N79W to E Honduras near 15N83W to NW Nicaragua near 13N86W.
    Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front N of 16N and E
    of 82W. Isolated showers are near and within 120 nm NW of the
    front S of 16N and W of 82W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail
    within 180 nm NW of the front, with moderate to fresh winds
    closer to the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is analyzed just
    east of the front over western Haiti extending southward to
    15N95W. Only typical isolated trade wind showers are noted over
    the eastern Caribbean.

    Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central
    Caribbean through Wed night, and increase to at or near gale force
    along the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night.
    Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
    through tonight. The front that extends from E Cuba to E Honduras
    will become fully stationary by late tonight and begin to weaken
    then drift northward from Cuba westward Tue morning and night.
    Strong high pressure building over the western Atlc will increase
    the pressure gradient over the basin Tue through Fri. This will
    result in strong trades over most of the eastern and central
    Caribbean. Strong offshore gap winds will affect the lee of Cuba,
    and also blow through the Mona and Windward passages, especially
    Wed through Thu. Seas over the central Caribbean will build
    Tuesday, peaking Wed through early Thu at 10 to 15 feet, highest S
    of 15N between 74W-79W. Winds and seas will subside over most
    areas Fri through Sat night.


    A cold front extends from 32N62W to 27N66W to Guantanamo Bay Cuba
    near 20N76W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 150
    nm E of the front N of 25N. Scattered showers are along and within
    150 nm E of the front S of 25N. Winds of 20-25 kt prevail near
    and west of the front. Waves of 13 ft were recently measured near
    30N69W by an altimeter. A surface trough is along 49/50W from
    24N-31N. Upper-level diffluence in the area is enhancing scattered
    showers and thunderstorms from 22N-29N between 44W-49W. East of
    40W, mostly quiet weather prevails due to broad high pressure
    ridging. However, fresh to strong trades cover most of the E
    Atlantic from 20N-30N. The forecast from Meteo France mentions
    that near gales are likely occurring now near the coast of Morocco
    in the marine zones called TARFAYA and AGADIR. These near gales
    are expected to persist in that area into Thursday.

    The cold front that extends from near 32N62W to near 20N76W will
    become stationary oriented ENE-WSW from north of Puerto Rico to
    near the Windward Passage by Wed evening. Strong winds will
    develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure
    builds north of the front. These winds will persist until Thu as
    the strong high pressure shifts eastward over the western Atlantic
    waters north of the area. Seas of 10-17 ft are expected tonight
    and Tuesday, especially N of 25N and east of 72W. Tue night into
    Wed night, seas near 12 ft will affect most of the waters from
    20N-25N between 65W and the SE Bahamas. Another strong cold front
    will move off the Florida coast on Thu afternoon. The front will
    reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba
    Fri afternoon, from near 31N69W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba
    Fri night and from near 31N66W to 25N72W and stationary to the
    central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Sat. Strong to gale
    force southerly winds will precede the front along with building
    seas through Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
    follow behind the front.

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