Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 220529
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    128 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0500 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
    Leone near 07N12W, curving to 04N16W and 02N19W. The ITCZ continues
    from 02N19W, to the Equator along 30W, to 45W from the Equator to
    01S. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
    rainshowers are from 05N southward from 14W westward, and from 08N
    southward elsewhere westward to 60W. scattered to numerous strong
    rainshowers are from 01N to 02.5N from 04W eastward.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the
    eastern coast of Florida near 27N80W, to 26N87W, and 26N89W.
    The remainder of the stationary front, that part that is in the
    western Gulf of Mexico, is dissipating along 26N89W beyond 29N95W,
    and inland at the coast of Texas. Upper level cyclonic wind flow,
    with a trough, is moving through the eastern sections of Texas.
    Upper level NW wind flow moves from Texas, through the Gulf of
    Mexico, and then beyond it, into the NW part of Costa Rica. The
    NW wind flow is on the western side of an upper level trough,
    whose cyclonic wind flow eventually covers parts of the eastern
    Gulf of Mexico, much of the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean
    from 60W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
    strong rainshowers cover parts of the NW corner of the Gulf of
    Mexico, and between 84W and 90W.

    A cold front will reach the Texas coast early on Sunday, preceded
    by a pre-frontal squall line. The cold front will reach from the
    Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday night, from
    the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night,
    and then slow down in its forward speed somewhat on Tuesday
    passing across the Straits of Florida on Tuesday night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An upper level trough cuts across NW Cuba into the NW sections of
    Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
    rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N
    southward from 74W westward. Earlier rainshowers that were
    covering the coastal areas and some inland areas of Colombia and
    NW Venezuela, have weakened and dissipated for the moment.
    Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in Colombia and
    Venezuela, from 06N to 10N in Lake Maracaibo, 70W and 75W.
    The Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from Jamaica and 18N
    northward, from 52W westward in the Atlantic Ocean is covered by
    isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, that are in the
    area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow of the NW Cuba-to-Costa
    Rica trough.

    Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh-to-locally
    strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea, and
    along the southern coast of Hispaniola, through early Sunday.
    Strong nocturnal trade winds are expected to resume on Sunday
    night along the north coast of the South America. A weakening cold
    front will pass southeastward through the Yucatan Basin on
    Tuesday night, and wash out across the NW Caribbean Sea during the
    middle of the next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front passes through 32N56W, to 29N63W, to 27N70W. The
    front becomes stationary, and it continues from 27N70W, to 28N78W,
    and then across Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, and
    into the Gulf of Mexico. The Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean,
    from Jamaica and 18N northward, from 52W westward in the Atlantic
    Ocean is covered by isolated moderate to locally strong
    rainshowers, that are in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind
    flow of the NW Cuba-to-Costa Rica trough.

    An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N13W. Upper
    level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
    northward from 30W eastward. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near
    35N13W. A frontal boundary is inland in northern sections of
    Africa. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
    in satellite imagery.

    An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N42W.
    Weak cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
    northward between 40W and 51W. No significant deep convective
    precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

    The current frontal boundary will lift northward on Sunday. Near-
    gale force SE wind flow is forecast to develop across the
    forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Monday, in association
    with a surface low pressure center that will be shifting eastward
    across the southeast United States. The surface low will move
    northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
    Tuesday, and drag a a couple of weak cold fronts across the
    northwest waters during the middle of the next week.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    MT