National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
AXNT20 KNHC 201808 CCA
Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
110 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019
Corrected to include Special Features Gale Warning
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Winds are expected to increase to gale force near the coast of
Colombia by Friday morning. This increase in winds is due to a
tightening pressure gradient in that area due to high pressure
building southward over the western Atlantic. For more details
go to www.hurricanes.gov/marine
The monsoon trough extends from western Africa near 08N13W to
02N21W. The ITCZ continues from this point to 03S35W to the coast
of South America near 01S46W. Most of the deepest convection lies
to the north of the ITCZ aided by an upper-level jet from the
equator to 3N between 30W and 39W. Scattered moderate convection
also exists from 3N to 6N between 10W and 14W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front is moving slowly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico,
and as of 1500 UTC the frontal boundary extends from southern
Louisiana to a 1009 mb low pressure area over the southwestern
Bay of Campeche near 21N97W. Northerly winds of 20 to 25 kt and
scattered to numerous showers are occurring behind the front.
Another frontal boundary, this one being stationary, lies over
the far northeastern Gulf, but no siginifcant weather is currently
occurring along that feature. Between the fronts, the weather
conditions are relatively quiet with moderate east to southeast
The cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to
stall and weaken tonight and Thursday as high pressure gradually
builds westward from the Atlantic. This change in the weather
pattern should cause southeasterly winds and mild conditons to
become established over most of the area by the end of the week.
Generally fair weather prevails across the Caribbean region today
supported by widespread dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of
the atmosphere. Satellite images do show patches of low clouds
and perhaps embedded isolated showers moving within the trade wind
flow. The surface winds are strongest in the typical spot close
to the Colombian coast, but these winds appear to have decreased
below gale force today.
Looking ahead for the next couple of days, no significant changes
in the weather pattern are expected as high pressure remains
anchored to the north of the area. This pattern should maintain
fresh to strong trade winds across much of the area during the
next couple of days.
The most notable feature over the subtropical Atlantic is a cold front
that enters the discussion area near 32N33W and extends to
25N60W, at which point it becomes stationary and lifts northward
toward the Georgia coast. A line of clouds and likely embedded
showers accompany the front. Recent scatterometer data shows a
fairly large region of 20-25 kt winds north of the boundary to
32N, with stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditons are
quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic supported by weak
surface high pressure and dry air aloft.
The front is expected to gradually weaken during the next day or
two, allowing high pressure to dominate the region by the end of
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