Atlantic hurricane map

Tuesday, Sep 25, 2018

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  1. 136
    ABNT20 KNHC 250515
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
    downgraded Subtropical Depression Leslie, located about 1200 miles
    west of the Azores.

    A broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles south of Cape
    Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and
    thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite data indicate that the
    circulation of the low is elongated and not well organized.
    However, this system could still become a tropical depression later
    today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and Wednesday,
    additional development appears unlikely, due to strong upper-level
    winds, while the system moves northward and north-northeastward near
    the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone
    formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall across portions
    of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later
    today and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip
    currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast
    today. For more information, please see products from your local
    National Weather Service office.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    The remnants of Kirk are located about 1100 miles east of the
    Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at around 25 mph.
    This system continues to produce a large area of showers and
    thunderstorms, along with winds to gale force on its north side.
    However, satellite data indicate that the system still lacks a
    closed circulation. This disturbance could redevelop into a
    tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before it moves
    into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it
    approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and
    Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as
    gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely even if the system
    does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on
    this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
    Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

    Subtropical Depression Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical
    tonight after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic.
    After that time, Leslie could reacquire subtropical or tropical
    characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over the
    central Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

    &&

    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
    on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi