CDEMA says 2026 Atlantic hurricane season could be less active

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins next month, is expected to be potentially less active than in recent years.

Chief Executive Officer of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency, Elizabeth Riley, says the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology is forecasting approximately 12 named storms, seven hurricanes and two major hurricanes for the season.

However, the CIMH has indicated that warmer waters around the northern Caribbean could support increased rainfall during storms, while a delayed and drier-than-usual wet season is expected overall.

Ms Riley explained that the CIMH also anticipates that the drier conditions could contribute to intense rainfall events capable of producing extremely high flood and flash flood risks across many parts of the Caribbean.

The CDEMA Chief Executive Officer noted that the forecast means Caribbean countries must prepare not only for cyclone impacts, but also for the compounding effects of excessive heat, dry conditions, water stress and sectoral impacts, particularly in agriculture and health.

She also stressed that, as demonstrated by Hurricane Melissa in 2025, it only takes one hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean to create an active and damaging season.