Major Middle East powers urge Trump not to attack Iran

By Mostafa Salem, Jeremy Diamond, Gul Tuysuz, CNN

(CNN) — Some personnel at the United States’ largest military base in the Middle East have been urged to leave, a US official told CNN on Wednesday, as regional nations press the Trump administration to reconsider taking military action against Iran.

The US official described the directive to some personnel to leave al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar as a “precaution,” given current tension in the region.

The US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar advised personnel to “exercise increased caution and limit non-essential travel” to any military installations in the region, and the embassy in Riyadh urged citizens to maintain a “personal safety plan.”

Meanwhile, anxiety is spreading across Iran’s neighbors. Those countries fear that an attack could destabilize the region and have far-reaching consequences, prompting them to speak to the Trump administration to air their concerns.

Arab and Turkish officials have significantly intensified diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Washington and Tehran this week, sources told CNN.

“Any military escalation will have consequences for the wider region, including its security and economy,” a regional official with knowledge of the matter told CNN on Wednesday.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman have launched diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation, the official said. Arab governments have warned that an attack now could have the “opposite effect and unite Iranians on both sides behind the regime,” the regional official said.

Iran closed its airspace for around five hours on Wednesday night to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission from its aviation authority.

US President Donald Trump had warned Tehran against killing protesters after Iranian authorities launched a brutal crackdown on demonstrations that stretched over two weeks, marking the country’s largest nationwide protests in years.

Trump, however, said Wednesday that he had been informed that Iran has “no plan for executions,” adding that “very important sources on the other side” had assured him that executions were not taking place.

Trump’s comments came in response to fears for the fate of detained protester Erfan Soltani, who was sentenced to death after his detention last week, according to the US State Department. Iran’s judiciary disputed claims that he was due to be executed, saying he has not been sentenced to death, according to state-run IRIB.

Diplomatic efforts may be ‘too late’

Turkey is also in touch with both Iranian and American officials about returning to the negotiating table, a regional diplomatic source told CNN on Wednesday. But it may be “too late,” the source warned.

“Currently, there is talk about negotiating. The pace of talks is slow, (and) at this speed might end up being too late,” the source said.

On Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said his country is trying to “support” an agreement between Iran and the US that will “result in a win-win situation” for both sides.

“The stability of the region depends on it,” Fidan said.

Turkey, a NATO member that has felt the economic pressures and security risks from hosting millions of Syrian refugees from Syria’s decade-long civil war, risks encountering a new wave of refugees should the Iranian regime collapse.

But its primary concern with instability in Iran is likely the risk of unrest in its neighbor’s Kurdish regions, which Ankara fears could spill across the border and reignite separatist sentiment. Last year, Turkey reached a historic turning point in its decades-long conflict with militants of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) after the group renounced violence and ambitions to secede.

In Saudi Arabia, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir told CNN’s Becky Anderson on Wednesday that “everybody is watching the situation very closely.”

“Everybody is hoping that the situation can be resolved in a manner that minimizes any kind of damage,” he said.

Since Trump first threatened to intervene last week, more than 2,000 protesters have been killed by Iranian forces, who accuse them of being “foreign-backed rioters.” Trump doubled down Tuesday in a social media post, calling on Iranians to take over institutions and promising that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”

Trump also announced that he had “cancelled all meetings” with Iranian officials following reports over the weekend suggesting possible negotiations between the US and Iran.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke to his counterparts in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, and the chief of Iran’s national security body, Ali Larijani, spoke to the Qatari foreign minister.

Fears of refugee influx and border insurgency

Regional nations fear a range of consequences if Iran is attacked or its regime collapses, including Iranian military reprisals against US bases in the Persian Gulf, a potential refugee influx, cross-border insurgencies and revived separatist movements.

Energy-rich Iran is one of the Middle East’s most populous and ethnically diverse countries, with more than 90 million people and a vast territory bordering the Persian Gulf. It also holds strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint through which almost 20 million barrels of oil pass every day, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

“The prospect of Iran’s military or nuclear capabilities falling out of state control, the eruption of separatist insurgencies by Iran’s ethnic minorities and a mass refugee crisis are among the key scenarios that could have long-term adverse consequences for Gulf security,” said Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain.

Iran’s leadership has vowed to retaliate against US regional interests. In June, Tehran targeted the al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar in response to American strikes on its nuclear facilities.

Qatar’s former prime minister, Hamad bin Jassem Al Thani, said US military action against Iran “will not be in the interest of America’s friends in the region” and urged Arab nations bordering the gulf to “persuade” the US to enter negotiations.

“Any action that contributes to destabilizing Iran will also lead to chaos whose results we do not know. We differ with Iran on many matters, but dialogue is the way to resolve these differences,” he said on X.

Another neighboring country likely concerned about spillover effects from Iran is Pakistan, which could become entangled in cross-border insurgency involving armed separatist groups operating in Iran’s restive border regions.

Over the past two days, more than 300 Pakistani nationals have returned to Pakistan from Iran, including students, pilgrims, workers and tourists. Officials say the number of returnees is rising steadily as more Pakistanis opt to return home.

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