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Photo via CMC.
BASSETERRE, St. Kitts, CMC -The climatologist at the Barbados-based Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck, said Thursday that next year’s traditional dry season will be a stressful period for the region.
The dry season is usually between the months of December to May, and Van Meerbeeck is predicting a stressful period with excessive heat that will impact agriculture, health, tourism and other sectors, along with limited cooling periods that will not be sufficient to reduce the impact on the economics and development of the region.
“Our Climate extremes are becoming the new normal,” Van Meerbeeck, told delegates attending the 2025 Dry Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum here.
He explained that the worst of the dry season heat will be during April and May, and despite the projection, there is a contributing factor that can worsen or stabilise the reality of weather patterns for the upcoming dry season beginning in December and concluding in May 2026.
“Sahara dust cannot be accurately predicted; the dust absorbs moisture which can impact the amount of rainfall. The dust creates a stronger, more stable inversion that prevents rainfall and with reduced rainfall this can lead to drought and drought-like conditions,” Van Meerbeeck.
“We have drought concerns for the Windward Islands (Dominica, Grenada, St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines)” he said while explaining that the excessive heat predicted can impact the health system because the conditions will affect the region, especially the Eastern and Western Caribbean territories.
“There will be more hospital visits linked to water-borne diseases, respiratory illnesses and other diseases that strive with heat,” he said, explaining that higher nighttime temperatures because of heat waves will affect individuals with different ailments, lack of nighttime cooling can lead to more fatigue because the body will not be able to relax itself.
“There will be excessive and intense heat both during the night and the day,” he said.
Though the general outlook prediction is for reduced rainfall, the cooling period of December 2025 through February 2026 will come with mostly comfortable temperatures but the period will still be warmer than the usual season.
For April and May the transition into the 2026 heat season will feature a rapid warming except if very wet.
“Heat waves are increasingly likely in April and May,” Van Meerbeeck said, noting also that there will be a low chance of heat stress episodes in the vulnerable population and small livestock until February but becoming increasingly frequent and intense in April and May.
