The Barbados Meteorological Services is closely monitoring the progress of a tropical wave located near 47/48W south of 14N at 5 pm today Sunday, 2nd October 2022.
Throughout the day convection associated with this wave has decreased somewhat and the system remains disorganized however, some sporadic development of deep convection is likely over the next 12 to 24 hours.
Conditions are currently marginally favourable for slow development over the next 24 to 48 hours as it approaches Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean however, after 48 hours numerical guidance suggests that conditions should become less conducive for tropical cyclone development as it crosses the island chain.
The system is expected to track westward to slightly north of westward at 15 to 20 mph over the next 24 to 36 hours with some reduction in forward speed as the system interacts with a deep layered trough which is forecast to be anchored across the region on Wednesday.
Regardless of development this wave in combination with a deep layered trough will bring some moderate to heavy showers and occasional gusty winds to Barbados on Wednesday.
It is recommended that the public stays alert for updates from the BMS on this system over the next 24 to 48 hours.
The next update will be on Monday 3rd October 2022 at 8 am or sooner if conditions warrant.